Apr12020
Finanza & Banking

Articolo del 11.03.2020 pubblicato sul sito di Internazionale

Tre parole: “exceptionally bad times”. Chissà se gli estensori del patto di stabilità che regola i bilanci europei avevano previsto tutto questo. Fatto sta che quelle tre parole – tempi eccezionalmente brutti –, ricordate da una nota dell’ufficio parlamentare di bilancio, si adattano perfettamente allo choc all’economia che il nuovo coronavirus sta diffondendo in tutto il mondo globalizzato. Lo tsunami del coronavirus sull’economia è già arrivato, e l’Italia, il paese più indebitato della Ue, è in prima linea nella sperimentazione di quella clausola che apre il lucchetto dei deficit pubblici, sospendendo l’obbligo di rispettare il percorso di aggiustamento al quale sono tenuti i paesi che, come il nostro, sono fuori dai parametri Ue di finanza pubblica.
Lo stanziamento iniziale (sei miliardi, lo 0,3 per cento del pil, al quale la Commissione europea aveva già dato il via libera) è in poche ore salito a 25 miliardi. La stessa cifra menzionata dalla presidente della Commissione europea come fondo di emergenza per gli aiuti al sistema sanitario e alle imprese dei paesi che saranno colpiti. Perché questa, subito dopo quella sanitaria, è la nuova emergenza che abbiamo di fronte, della quale il crollo delle borse mondiali del 9 marzo è solo un sintomo: si tratta di contenere – impedire è impossibile, come per il contagio invisibile – l’impatto economico del coronavirus. Si tratta di posti di lavoro, stipendi, vita. Solo la scorsa settimana – sembra già un secolo fa – il G7 si è riunito, in videoconferenza, senza concludere niente. Subito dopo, la Federal reserve statunitense ha unilateralmente abbassato il costo del denaro di mezzo punto. Si attendono per il 12 marzo le decisioni della Bce sulla politica monetaria nell’area dell’euro, dove il costo del denaro è già a un livello bassissimo, addirittura negativo (-0,25 per cento). Ma in tutte le sedi internazionali e nazionali ci si interroga sui limiti degli strumenti della politica monetaria e si invoca un più massiccio intervento pubblico: ma come intervenire? Ce la farà, la debolissima Unione europea incartata nelle sue lentissime regole, a fronteggiare lo shock economico da Covid-19? E con quanti e quali mezzi?
Per rispondere, bisogna innanzitutto capire che tipo di shock è quello che sta investendo le nostre economie. I primi numeri arriveranno a breve, con i conti e le indagini congiunturali di febbraio. Stime circolate nelle istituzioni internazionali la scorsa settimana già parlavano, per il pil italiano, di un calo dell’1 per cento nel 2020. Ma, appunto, una settimana fa nessuno prevedeva che si sarebbe fatta di tutta la penisola una zona arancione. Nella memoria presentata alla camera, l’Ufficio parlamentare di bilancio scrive:

“Se anche l’epidemia venisse arginata entro aprile è del tutto probabile che nel complesso dell’anno 2020 il pil si ridurrà; l’ordine di grandezza della contrazione dell’attività economica è però al momento fortemente aleatorio. Molto dipenderà dall’eventuale allargamento del contagio ad altri mercati e aree geografiche. Secondo diversi analisti il coinvolgimento dell’emergenza sanitaria di altri paesi accresce il rischio che si inneschi una crisi economica globale; in tale scenario l’economia italiana sarebbe fortemente colpita, in virtù della marcata propensione all’esportazione.“

Per la Cina alcuni dati ci sono già: l’ultimo è l’indice degli acquisti dell’industria manifatturiera, che a febbraio è stato del 35,7 per cento, il più basso di sempre. In un suo blog dedicato al coronavirus, il Fondo monetario internazionale mette a confronto l’andamento di questo indice in altre due crisi importanti, quella dell’influenza H1N1 (nel 2009) e la crisi finanziaria globale del 2008. Il crollo di febbraio è enormemente maggiore rispetto a quello dell’altra influenza, e superiore anche a quello dello scoppio della bolla dei subprime che innestò la grande recessione. È vero che nelle regioni cinesi più colpite la situazione epidemiologica è migliorata. Ma ancora al 9 marzo, riassume il Financial Times, l’indice che misura l’attività logistica era sotto del 20 per cento rispetto all’inizio di gennaio; quello del consumo di carbone del 30 per cento; quello dei trasporti urbani dimezzato.
Numeri importanti, di fronte ai quali gli analisti si sono chiesti se siamo di fronte a uno choc da offerta e da domanda. Cioè: da dove viene il contagio? Dal fatto che si consuma di meno, o che si produce di meno? Secondo le analisi dell’Fmi prima citate, lo shock cinese è stato sia di offerta sia di domanda. Per cominciare, le persone non possono andare a lavorare, le fabbriche chiudono o rallentano, e quindi si produce di meno; ma allo stesso tempo c’è meno domanda, soprattutto dai consumatori di viaggi, turismo, servizi personali, e poi in generale per il fatto che la gente guadagna di meno e ha meno certezze sul futuro, quindi spende di meno. Secondo Oliver Blanchard, del Peterson institute for international economics, ex capo economista dello stesso FMI, essenzialmente è uno shock da offerta: tiene i lavoratori fuori dalle fabbriche e dai posti di lavoro e le merci lontane dagli scaffali. L’economista Kennet Rogoff fa un paragone con la crisi degli anni settanta, sottolineando che il doppio impatto sulla domanda e sull’offerta può comportare generalizzati cali di produzione e rifornimenti, insieme anche a una ripresa dell’inflazione.
Il punto è che questa crisi non colpisce “solo” i settori in prima linea (turismo e trasporto aereo innanzitutto); ma spezza le catene mondiali del valore che legano in modo strettissimo posti lontani: in qualche modo si è disvelato anche con la mappa del contagio, con le regioni più produttive d’Europa connesse tra loro e con la Cina, non solo e non più come import- export, ma come pezzi di una stessa catena produttiva. La crisi del 2008 e successivamente quelle politiche dal 2016 in poi (Brexit e Trump) possono anche aver dato un colpo letale alla globalizzazione, almeno da un punto di vista politico e geopolitico; ma le catene globali del valore sono ancora lì e reggono la produzione delle merci che alla fine ci arrivano in casa. Ogni focolaio di coronavirus, tanto più se in regioni altamente industrializzate, spezza un anello di quelle catene, ripercuotendosi su tutti gli altri. E poi può esserci il terzo shock, quello finanziario, se banche e borse saranno travolte dalla nuova incertezza globale.
Tutto questo porta a dire che sarà – è – uno shock globale per l’economia reale e quella finanziaria, incidendo sui gangli del funzionamento del sistema economico in cui viviamo e che regola le nostre vite. E che, venendo sia dal lato dell’offerta sia da quello della domanda, va affrontato con tutti gli strumenti a disposizione. Ma ci sono strumenti a disposizione?
Quello del 12 marzo sarà il debutto vero di Christine Lagarde al timone della Bce. Qualcuno si augura che faccia il bis del “whatever it takes” (a qualsiasi costo) con il quale Mario Draghi ha difeso il sistema monetario europeo dalla speculazione ai tempi della crisi dei debiti sovrani. Ma l’attesa per questo appuntamento potrebbe ingenerare false speranze. Quale potrebbe essere l’efficacia di un’ulteriore riduzione del costo del denaro nella zona dell’euro, se il tasso di interesse era già negativo e se già in tempi “normali” questo non era bastato per indurre le imprese a investire?
Come si è visto dagli effetti del taglio del costo del denaro della Fed la scorsa settimana, si tratta più di mosse per agire sul cambio euro/dollaro, che comunque sono importanti ma certo lontane da una soluzione cooperativa globale a una crisi globale. La politica monetaria può aiutare e accompagnare, soprattutto può evitare che anche le banche entrino nel baratro del coronavirus. Ma è ormai opinione diffusa, anche negli ambienti mainstream, che serva una politica fiscale, cioè una politica che agisce sulla spesa e sulle entrate pubbliche.
Qui entra in gioco l’Unione europea e le sue regole in “tempi eccezionalmente brutti”. Ormai tutti, da Trump (solo per casa sua) al Fondo monetario, invocano uno “stimolo fiscale”. Il problema, da questa parte dell’Atlantico, è che questo stimolo – cioè una manovra fortemente espansiva – dovrebbe essere fatto dalla stessa Unione europea come soggetto politico; così come il virus e la crisi non si accorgono dei confini nazionali, sovranazionale dovrebbe essere la risposta, per avere maggiore efficacia. L’Unione europea ha già mancato, disastrosamente, questo appuntamento nel 2009, quando la sua risposta “tradizionale” (l’austerità come unica ricetta) comportò da noi una recessione lunghissima. Adesso, lo shock arriva mentre la nuova Commissione si stava impantanando nelle beghe di un tiratissimo bilancio comunitario, e alle prese con il negoziato sulla Brexit.
Quale occasione migliore per cambiare le proprie abitudini – come tutti noi stiamo facendo – e cambiare schema di gioco? Per esempio, invece di concedere flessibilità caso per caso ai paesi colpiti dal virus, si potrebbero emettere dei titoli speciali europei (dei “coronabonds”) per finanziare gli interventi di contrasto alla crisi indotta dall’epidemia. È quanto per esempio chiede anche l’Ufficio parlamentare di bilancio nella memoria prima ricordata: “Sarebbe fondamentale, fin d’ora, affiancare all’azione dei singoli paesi modalità di intervento definite a livello dell’intera euro zona, inclusa la possibilità di emettere debito con garanzia europea. Lo stesso strumento potrà essere usato una volta terminata l’emergenza per sostenere la ripresa del sentiero di crescita”.
Nell’attesa di un risveglio europeo (che potrebbe essere infinita), c’è da usare lo stimolo fiscale che l’Italia ha già a disposizione. Fino a 25 miliardi, ha annunciato Conte, probabilmente dopo aver già sondato una disponibilità della Ue su questa cifra. La decisione su come spenderli sarà dettata certo dall’emergenza, ma – si spera – non blindata nelle mani di un fantomatico commissario-uomo-forte. La stessa crisi che stiamo vivendo ci dà qualche indizio per la sua soluzione.
In questi giorni, in queste ore, tutti abbiamo capito cosa sono i beni di interesse pubblico. Al di là delle definizioni strette da manuale di economia, li vediamo sotto i nostri occhi. Un reparto di terapia intensiva è un bene pubblico, un’infermiera stremata a fine turno è un bene pubblico, centinaia di laboratori nel mondo che lavorano al vaccino sono un bene pubblico, un sistema intelligente per rintracciare i movimenti del virus è un bene pubblico, scuola e università che funzionano anche se chiuse sono beni pubblici, così come la formazione di chi le deve usare.
Usiamo le risorse per curare e ripristinare i nostri beni pubblici, a cominciare dalla sanità (ospedali e medici, ma anche reti territoriali capaci di conoscere e gestire le emergenze), dalla ricerca, dalla scuola. E dunque che lo “stimolo fiscale” vada sì, in prima battuta, a tutti quelli che sono messi nei guai economici a causa del virus – i lavoratori e le imprese più deboli o esposte, a cominciare da quelli non coperti dagli ammortizzatori sociali tradizionali – ma vada anche, subito dopo, alle infrastrutture civili. Che hanno un grande valore sociale, e anche un impatto economico immediato, dato che si tratta quasi sempre di settori ad alta intensità di lavoro, la cui attivazione dunque darebbe subito un’iniezione di domanda all’economia.

Fonte:
INTERNAZIONALE (http://intern.az/1BBF)

Category: Finanza & Banking17.140 di Commenti

Author: Ventura Consulting

17.140 commenti

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